Monday, March 24, 2008

The Giant Sucking Sound

Forgive me if I deviate from the topic of digital marketing for a moment -- actually it'll be in here somewhere.

I've been thinking a lot about the digital economy and its implications. Generally speaking digital is good for Northern California where I live. Sure, lots of tech jobs have been outsourced to Asia, but there are still lots of them here as well. And new companies and the promise of biotech generally mean that Northern California won't have to suffer the traumas of Ohio or Michigan or Pennsylvania.

But I live in Oakland, which is the big city in Nor Cal that generally doesn't benefit very much from the digital boom. The schools aren't very good, drop out rates are high, crime is problematic, and real, genuine, empty stomach poverty is by no means rare here. There are also systemic problems in the way digital recruits people. How many African Americans do YOU know in digital? Ditto Latinos? How about even in Mobile, which is a medium disproportionately favored by both groups. Or how about women? How many women CEOs are there in the Valley?

And it brings up a larger question for me about what regular people are going to do in the US in the future. Yes, bigger, more educated minds than mine have discussed and theorized about this subject. But while some of us can capitalize on the digital revolution, there are millions and millions and millions of Americans and Europeans and Mexicans and Canadians and insert names of 92 other countries who largely cannot.

There used to be a place for people who have abilities related to physical work -- you couldn't perhaps be rich as a factory worker, but you could have a house and a couple cars and pay for a state school for your progeny.

And now what? They cannot all be waiters -- in part because companies are figuring out ways to outsource even drive through orders and in part because fewer and fewer Americans will be able to afford eating out.

They cannot all be customer service reps -- as is proven every day when we call the excellent Indian Amazon CSRs. They can't all work in Wal-Mart, especially as they are pursuing self check out. They can't all be car mechanics as cars need less and less maintenance.

So what ARE regular people -- and I do NOT use the term regular as a pejorative, what I mean is people who aren't blessed by accident of birth as I am by Ivy League education and the "pull" required to get and keep a great job. I am talking about people without silver spoons.

I am not a Luddite. I am not suggesting tarriffs on the order of Smoot-Hawley. Actually, I am hopeful that digital will open an array of opportunities for small businesses -- like eBay did, only on an even larger scale. I harbor no illusions about growing a new industrial base in the US -- there is no way a country that cares about people, air, and water can compete economically with slaves in Myanmar. For manufacturing to return to the US, there will need to be some sort of micro model that capitalizes on the passions of individuals rather than the phenomenon of interchangeable parts. An example: a model that enables an avid skateboarder to make and sell skateboards built based on insights from her own experience. I have no idea if this is possible on a major scale.

I am just ranting now I guess. What I am saying is not new. It's no wonder that the people of Ohio picked the candidate that postured so firmly about NAFTA last month. But Clintonian ideas aren't going to create the opps that are going to be necessary. For one, Hillary largely misunderstands the power of the web. Heck, look at her crapass digital efforts. Nope, looking to Washington to do anything but blow a lot of hot air on this topic is ridiculous. This cause needs the best and brightest in digital -- who are arguably the only people creating value in the US economy today.

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